{"id":14910,"date":"2024-06-06T17:15:33","date_gmt":"2024-06-06T10:15:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/?p=14910"},"modified":"2024-06-11T17:30:41","modified_gmt":"2024-06-11T10:30:41","slug":"gia-ca-phe-on-dinh-pha-tron-voi-arabica-chiu-ap-luc-boi-su-suy-yeu-cua-dong-real-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/gia-ca-phe-on-dinh-pha-tron-voi-arabica-chiu-ap-luc-boi-su-suy-yeu-cua-dong-real-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Gi\u00e1 C\u00e0 Ph\u00ea \u1ed4n \u0110\u1ecbnh Pha Tr\u1ed9n V\u1edbi Arabica Ch\u1ecbu \u00c1p L\u1ef1c B\u1edfi S\u1ef1 Suy Y\u1ebfu C\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ed3ng Real Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"

C\u00e0 ph\u00ea arabica k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n th\u00e1ng 7 (KCN24) \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda gi\u1ea3m -1,95 (-0,83%), v\u00e0 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n th\u00e1ng 7 tr\u00ean s\u00e0n ICE (RMN24) \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda t\u0103ng +139 (+3,21%).<\/span><\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea h\u00f4m nay di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u, v\u1edbi c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t 2-1\/2 th\u00e1ng. C\u00e0 ph\u00ea Arabica b\u1ecb \u00e1p l\u1ef1c b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng real Brazil (^USDBRL), \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong 14 th\u00e1ng so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 T\u01b0. \u0110\u1ed3ng real y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00e0 ph\u00ea Brazil.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Gi\u00e1<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 b\u1edfi lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd g\u00e2y thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i cho c\u00e2y c\u00e0 ph\u00ea v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Ng\u00e0y 22\/5, nh\u00e0 kinh doanh c\u00e0 ph\u00ea Volcafe cho bi\u1ebft v\u1ee5 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2024\/25 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 24 tri\u1ec7u bao, th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong 13 n\u0103m, do l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a k\u00e9m \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra “thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c” cho hoa c\u00e0 ph\u00ea. Volcafe c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t robusta to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00e0 4,6 tri\u1ec7u bao trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2024\/25, m\u1ee9c th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t 9 tri\u1ec7u bao trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 nh\u01b0ng l\u00e0 n\u0103m th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t h\u1ea1t c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu m\u01b0a \u1edf Brazil \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 v\u00e0 \u0111ang \u0111\u00e8 n\u1eb7ng l\u00ean c\u00e0 ph\u00ea arabica sau khi Somar Meteorologia b\u00e1o c\u00e1o h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 Hai r\u1eb1ng khu v\u1ef1c Minas Gerais c\u1ee7a Brazil \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a 25,6 mm, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 135% m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed trong tu\u1ea7n qua. Minas Gerais chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 30% s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng arabica c\u1ee7a Brazil.<\/span><\/p>\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 tin t\u1ee9c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1. T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c C\u00e0 ph\u00ea Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (ICO) b\u00e1o c\u00e1o h\u00f4m th\u1ee9 T\u01b0 r\u1eb1ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea th\u00e1ng 4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng + 16,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i l\u00ean 10,24 tri\u1ec7u bao v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4 t\u0103ng + 11,1% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i l\u00ean 80,99 tri\u1ec7u bao. Ngo\u00e0i ra, Cecafe ng\u00e0y 20\/5 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea nh\u00e2n th\u00e1ng 4 c\u1ee7a Brazil t\u0103ng +61% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 l\u00ean 3,9 tri\u1ec7u bao. T\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u Comexim c\u1ee7a Brazil, ng\u00e0y 1\/2, \u0111\u00e3 n\u00e2ng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea Brazil ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 l\u00ean 44,9 tri\u1ec7u bao so v\u1edbi \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 41,5 tri\u1ec7u bao. Brazil l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u1ea1t c\u00e0 ph\u00ea arabica l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t t\u1eeb Vi\u1ec7t Nam, n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u1ea1t c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1. Ng\u00e0y 26\/3, B\u1ed9 N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p Vi\u1ec7t Nam d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e0 ph\u00ea c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m -20% xu\u1ed1ng 1.472 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, v\u1ee5 m\u00f9a nh\u1ecf nh\u1ea5t trong 4 n\u0103m, do h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n. Ngo\u00e0i ra, Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i C\u00e0 ph\u00ea Vi\u1ec7t Nam cho bi\u1ebft, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m -20% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 1.336 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n. Th\u1ee9 T\u01b0 tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, C\u1ee5c H\u1ea3i quan Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea th\u00e1ng 5 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam gi\u1ea3m -36,5% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 xu\u1ed1ng 95.000 t\u1ea5n v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00e0 ph\u00ea th\u00e1ng 1-5 gi\u1ea3m -3,9% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 xu\u1ed1ng 833.000 t\u1ea5n. USDA FAS ng\u00e0y 31\/5 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 ti\u1ebfp th\u1ecb m\u1edbi 2024\/25 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 xu\u1ed1ng 27,9 tri\u1ec7u bao t\u1eeb 28 tri\u1ec7u bao trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i t\u1ed3n kho c\u00e0 ph\u00ea ICE t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi gi\u00e1. D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta theo d\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ICE v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 21\/2 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 1.958 l\u00f4, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 9-3\/4 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 T\u01b0 l\u00e0 5.079 l\u00f4. Ngo\u00e0i ra, t\u1ed3n kho c\u00e0 ph\u00ea arabica theo d\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ICE \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong 24 n\u0103m l\u00e0 224.066 bao v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 30\/11, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 15 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 T\u01b0 l\u00e0 798.683 bao.<\/span><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft El Nino n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh El Nino th\u01b0\u1eddng mang m\u01b0a l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ebfn Brazil v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n cho \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00e0 ph\u00ea. S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n El Nino \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i h\u1ea1n h\u00e1n cho c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c c\u00e0 ph\u00ea c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam trong n\u0103m nay, theo m\u1ed9t quan ch\u1ee9c t\u1eeb Vi\u1ec7n Kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, Th\u1ee7y v\u0103n v\u00e0 Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i Kh\u00ed h\u1eadu Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1, T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c C\u00e0 ph\u00ea Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (ICO) ng\u00e0y 3\/5 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e0 ph\u00ea to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng +5,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 l\u00ean 178 tri\u1ec7u bao do ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 hai n\u0103m m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t. ICO c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng +2,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i l\u00ean 177 tri\u1ec7u bao, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 1 tri\u1ec7u bao c\u00e0 ph\u00ea.<\/span><\/p>\n

C\u01a1 quan N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (FAS) c\u1ee7a USDA, trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o hai n\u0103m m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y 21\/12, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e0 ph\u00ea th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng +4,2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i l\u00ean 171,4 tri\u1ec7u bao, v\u1edbi s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng arabica t\u0103ng +10,7% l\u00ean 97,3 tri\u1ec7u bao v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta gi\u1ea3m -3,3% xu\u1ed1ng 74,1 tri\u1ec7u bao. FAS c\u1ee7a USDA d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m -4,0% xu\u1ed1ng 26,5 tri\u1ec7u bao t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 27,6 tri\u1ec7u bao trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2022-23. FAS c\u1ee7a USDA d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng arabica ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 c\u1ee7a Brazil s\u1ebd t\u0103ng +12,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 l\u00ean 44,9 tri\u1ec7u bao do n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 di\u1ec7n t\u00edch tr\u1ed3ng t\u0103ng. FAS c\u1ee7a USDA c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e0 ph\u00ea ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2023\/24 t\u1ea1i Colombia, nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t arabica l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 hai th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, s\u1ebd t\u0103ng +7,5% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 l\u00ean 11,5 tri\u1ec7u bao.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0Theo Rich Asplund- Barchart do Edu Trade bi\u00ean so\u1ea1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

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C\u00e0 ph\u00ea arabica k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n th\u00e1ng 7 (KCN24) \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda gi\u1ea3m -1,95 (-0,83%), v\u00e0 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n th\u00e1ng 7 tr\u00ean s\u00e0n ICE (RMN24) \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda t\u0103ng +139 (+3,21%). Gi\u00e1 c\u00e0 ph\u00ea h\u00f4m nay di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u, v\u1edbi c\u00e0 ph\u00ea robusta t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t 2-1\/2 th\u00e1ng. C\u00e0 ph\u00ea Arabica b\u1ecb […]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14818,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"subtitle":"","format":"standard","video":"","gallery":"","source_name":"","source_url":"","via_name":"","via_url":"","override_template":"0","override":[{"template":"4","single_blog_custom":"","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"0","layout":"right-sidebar","sidebar":"single-left","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"top","share_float_style":"share-monocrhome","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"Y\/m\/d","show_post_category":"1","show_post_reading_time":"0","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","show_zoom_button":"0","zoom_button_out_step":"2","zoom_button_in_step":"3","show_post_tag":"1","show_prev_next_post":"1","show_popup_post":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_author_box":"0","show_post_related":"0","show_inline_post_related":"0"}],"override_image_size":"0","image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"no-crop","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post":"0","trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post":"0","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","sponsored_post_name":"","sponsored_post_url":"","sponsored_post_logo_enable":"0","sponsored_post_logo":"","sponsored_post_desc":"","disable_ad":"0"},"jnews_primary_category":{"id":"","hide":""},"footnotes":""},"categories":[149],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14910","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14910","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14910"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14910\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14910"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14910"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14910"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}