Australia – m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u00faa m\u00ec l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi – \u0111ang \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc nguy c\u01a1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2026\/27 khi chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh do c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng Trung \u0110\u00f4ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng gieo tr\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n
Theo C\u1ee5c Kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Khoa h\u1ecdc T\u00e0i nguy\u00ean N\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p Australia (ABARES), s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00faa m\u00ec c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 26,7 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n, gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n 9 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n so v\u1edbi ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 8 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 5 n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n
Di\u1ec7n t\u00edch gieo tr\u1ed3ng l\u00faa m\u00ec d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 12%, xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 10,9 tri\u1ec7u ha – m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2019\/20. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, nhi\u1ec1u n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n sang c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i c\u00e2y tr\u1ed3ng c\u1ea7n \u00edt ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n h\u01a1n nh\u01b0 l\u00faa m\u1ea1ch nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n
M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh khi\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00faa m\u00ec Australia suy gi\u1ea3m l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh sau c\u00e1c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n
Australia ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1m t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh. Vi\u1ec7c c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng quanh eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 ur\u00ea t\u1ea1i Australia t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 60% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m.<\/p>\n
Nhi\u1ec1u n\u00f4ng d\u00e2n cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng ho\u1eb7c thu h\u1eb9p di\u1ec7n t\u00edch canh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t chi ph\u00ed. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 trang tr\u1ea1i th\u1eadm ch\u00ed gi\u1ea3m t\u1edbi 50% k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch gieo tr\u1ed3ng l\u00faa m\u00ec so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn ban \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n
Theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ph\u00e1i sinh, chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o t\u0103ng cao \u0111ang t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn l\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u00faa m\u00ec m\u00e0 c\u00f2n lan sang c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 ng\u00f4, \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng, kh\u00f4 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n
B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chi ph\u00ed, th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n c\u0169ng \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh r\u1ee7i ro l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u00e0nh n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p Australia.<\/p>\n
C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft cho th\u1ea5y hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Ni\u00f1o c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng duy tr\u00ec trong n\u0103m nay, k\u00e9o theo l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u01b0a th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t l\u00faa m\u00ec suy gi\u1ea3m trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n sinh tr\u01b0\u1edfng quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n
Nhi\u1ec1u chuy\u00ean gia cho r\u1eb1ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u00faa m\u00ec c\u1ee7a Australia c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1edbi 10 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n trong ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 t\u1edbi n\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n kh\u00f4 h\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 5% t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u00faa m\u00ec to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n
Vi\u1ec7c Australia gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng di\u1ec5n ra trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh nhi\u1ec1u khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u0169ng \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft c\u1ef1c \u0111oan v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n
Gi\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u suy gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 gi\u00e1 l\u00faa m\u00ec qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf trong trung h\u1ea1n, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, d\u1ea7u Brent, d\u1ea7u WTI v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n