{"id":46474,"date":"2026-09-29T09:27:01","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T02:27:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/?p=46474"},"modified":"2026-09-29T09:27:01","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T02:27:01","slug":"gia-nong-san-chicago-lua-mi-giam-ngo-dau-tuong-tang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/gia-nong-san-chicago-lua-mi-giam-ngo-dau-tuong-tang\/","title":{"rendered":"Gi\u00e1 n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n Chicago: l\u00faa m\u00ec gi\u1ea3m, ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng"},"content":{"rendered":"

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n tr\u00ean s\u00e0n Chicago kh\u00e9p l\u1ea1i cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n v\u1edbi di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u khi l\u00faa m\u00ec gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1, trong khi ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1ea1i \u0111i l\u00ean. Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i gi\u1eb1ng co quen thu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, n\u01a1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u1eeb tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cung \u1ee9ng, nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd giao d\u1ecbch ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 theo d\u00f5i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c quan s\u00e1t s\u00e1t sao c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 thu ho\u1ea1ch, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u. Nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trong phi\u00ean cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n cho th\u1ea5y b\u1ee9c tranh cung c\u1ea7u v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t, khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ch\u00ednh trong nh\u00f3m ng\u0169 c\u1ed1c v\u00e0 h\u1ea1t c\u00f3 d\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n

Theo b\u1ea3n tin th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u0103ng t\u1ea3i tr\u00ean UkrAgroConsult<\/a>, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng trong phi\u00ean cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa l\u00faa m\u00ec v\u00e0 hai m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

L\u00faa m\u00ec ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n, ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng<\/h2>\n

Tr\u00ean s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), l\u00faa m\u00ec l\u00e0 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng g\u00e2y ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t khi \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ec1u v\u1edbi hai n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i. \u00c1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a l\u00faa m\u00ec th\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1eafn v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o h\u01a1n ho\u1eb7c nhu c\u1ea7u mua v\u00e0o ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng ghi nh\u1eadn m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng, cho th\u1ea5y l\u1ef1c mua \u1edf hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y v\u1eabn hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 gi\u00fap gi\u00e1 duy tr\u00ec s\u1eafc xanh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n

\"Additional<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a gi\u1eefa ba m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng hi\u1ebfm g\u1eb7p tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n. M\u1ed7i lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 cung c\u1ea7u ri\u00eang, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb nh\u00f3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u chung nh\u01b0 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng tr\u1ed3ng tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh t\u1ed3n kho. Khi m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng suy y\u1ebfu, trong khi c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng kh\u00e1c t\u0103ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 ho\u1eb7c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 quan t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1eebng lo\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u th\u00eam v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00e2ng \u0111\u1ee1 nh\u00f3m n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n, b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tham kh\u1ea3o b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u sinh h\u1ecdc th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n<\/a>.<\/p>\n

L\u00faa m\u00ec gi\u1ea3m v\u00ec \u0111\u00e2u?<\/h3>\n

\u1ede th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n, l\u00faa m\u00ec ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cho th\u1ea5y tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00faa m\u00ec th\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 thu ho\u1ea1ch, n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1edbn v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc cung \u1ee9ng ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 phi\u00ean gi\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a l\u00faa m\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1c b\u00e1n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n khi gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng gi\u1eef \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng t\u00e2m l\u00fd quan tr\u1ecdng, ho\u1eb7c do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 cung v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng nhu c\u1ea7u trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea7n th\u00eam d\u1eef li\u1ec7u chi ti\u1ebft t\u1eeb b\u00e1o c\u00e1o cung c\u1ea7u, t\u1ed3n kho v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft t\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng v\u00f9ng tr\u1ed3ng l\u00faa m\u00ec tr\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec3m.<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y l\u00faa m\u00ec v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng d\u1ec5 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng theo th\u00f4ng tin m\u1edbi. B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0o li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ea1t, v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n ho\u1eb7c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

V\u00ec sao ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng?<\/h3>\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng trong phi\u00ean cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n, cho th\u1ea5y d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn hai m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y. V\u1edbi ng\u00f4, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng theo d\u00f5i r\u1ea5t s\u00e1t c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u1eeb nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 l\u00e0m th\u1ee9c \u0103n ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ethanol v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh gieo tr\u1ed3ng \u1edf M\u1ef9. Ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u1eb7c ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5, gi\u00e1 ng\u00f4 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, nh\u01b0ng ngo\u00e0i y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 m\u00f9a v\u1ee5 c\u00f2n ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn t\u1eeb nhu c\u1ea7u \u00e9p d\u1ea7u, kh\u00f4 \u0111\u1eadu v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t. Khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ngu\u1ed3n cung kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n qu\u00e1 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i ho\u1eb7c nhu c\u1ea7u mua h\u00e0ng c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n, gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ee1.<\/p>\n

Tuy d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o kh\u00f4ng n\u00eau r\u00f5 ch\u1ea5t x\u00fac t\u00e1c c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 cho \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng n\u00e0y, vi\u1ec7c ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t \u0111i l\u00ean trong khi l\u00faa m\u00ec gi\u1ea3m cho th\u1ea5y t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang ch\u1ecdn l\u1ecdc h\u01a1n, thay v\u00ec ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t tr\u00ean to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 nh\u00f3m n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y gi\u1edbi giao d\u1ecbch \u0111ang \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t t\u1eebng m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng cung c\u1ea7u thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 ch\u1ea1y theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng chung.<\/p>\n

Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i Chicago ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh b\u1ee9c tranh cung c\u1ea7u c\u00f2n ph\u00e2n h\u00f3a<\/h2>\n

\"Illustration<\/p>\n

S\u00e0n CBOT l\u00e0 n\u01a1i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 quan tr\u1ecdng cho nh\u00f3m n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, n\u00ean m\u1ed7i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean s\u00e0n n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 s\u1ee9c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ed9ng t\u1edbi t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a. Khi l\u00faa m\u00ec gi\u1ea3m c\u00f2n ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh cung c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i m\u00e0 c\u00f2n cho th\u1ea5y k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1eebng nh\u00f3m h\u00e0ng \u0111ang kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n

T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/h3>\n

V\u1edbi l\u00faa m\u00ec, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 th\u00eam t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng t\u1eeb xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ho\u1eb7c r\u1ee7i ro th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 t\u00e2m l\u00fd t\u00edch c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00f3m n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n c\u00f3 li\u00ean h\u1ec7 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 ch\u0103n nu\u00f4i.<\/p>\n

Tuy v\u1eady, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 r\u1ee7i ro cao do nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi tin t\u1ee9c b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd. M\u1ed9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1eddi ti\u1ebft, b\u00e1o c\u00e1o s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ho\u1eb7c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn. V\u00ec v\u1eady, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u00e1t c\u1eaft c\u1ee7a b\u1ee9c tranh l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng trung h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i ti\u1ebfp theo<\/h3>\n

Trong c\u00e1c phi\u00ean t\u1edbi, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn cung c\u1ea7u:<\/p>\n