{"id":52371,"date":"2026-10-22T09:21:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-22T02:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/?p=52371"},"modified":"2026-10-22T09:21:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-22T02:21:18","slug":"eo-bien-hormuz-co-the-bi-thay-the-trong-5-nam-toi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/eo-bien-hormuz-co-the-bi-thay-the-trong-5-nam-toi\/","title":{"rendered":"Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb “thay th\u1ebf” trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn logistics thay th\u1ebf t\u1ea1i V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, theo T\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c HSBC Georges Elhedery. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y m\u1edf ra kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, d\u00f9 xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1eabn g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p l\u00ean kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/strong><\/p>\n

H\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng thay th\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o Hormuz<\/h2>\n

Ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u ng\u00e0y 20\/10<\/strong> t\u1ea1i Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n T\u01b0\u01a1ng lai HSBC \u1edf Dubai, C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c Arab Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t (UAE)<\/strong>, \u00f4ng Georges Elhedery nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9\u2013Israel v\u1edbi Iran.<\/p>\n

Tuy\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i trung chuy\u1ec3n kho\u1ea3ng 20% d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf v\u00e0 LNG to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/h3>\n

Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec7m vi\u1ec7c trung chuy\u1ec3n kho\u1ea3ng 20% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf v\u00e0 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng (LNG) to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/strong>. Xung \u0111\u1ed9t t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0o tuy\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh \u0111ang t\u1eadp trung ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng d\u1eabn n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ea3ng bi\u1ec3n, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng tuy\u1ebfn logistics thay th\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

Theo \u00f4ng Elhedery, c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap khu v\u1ef1c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t, khi\u1ebfn Hormuz kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n gi\u1eef m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec7n nay trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi<\/strong>. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng thay \u0111\u1ed5i h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng, ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3i s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra trong d\u00f2ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c g\u00f3i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 872 t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra<\/h3>\n

D\u1eabn s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a MEED<\/strong>, n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u00e0nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00f3 tr\u1ee5 s\u1edf t\u1ea1i Dubai, HSBC cho bi\u1ebft khu v\u1ef1c Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, B\u1eafc Phi v\u00e0 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3<\/strong> \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c g\u00f3i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ri\u00eang l\u1ebb tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 872 t\u1ef7 USD<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c g\u00f3i n\u00e0y n\u1eb1m trong k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 1.400 t\u1ef7 USD ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trao th\u1ea7u<\/strong>. Ph\u1ea1m vi s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u bao g\u1ed3m h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng khu v\u1ef1c, kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n thay th\u1ebf tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua Hormuz.<\/p>\n

V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh v\u1eabn h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ecbu s\u1ee9c \u00e9p t\u1eeb xung \u0111\u1ed9t<\/h2>\n

Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111i c\u00f9ng nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n kinh t\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cho th\u1ea5y hai kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y \u0111ang t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi.<\/p>\n

Doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c quan t\u00e2m khu v\u1ef1c<\/h3>\n

Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a HSBC v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 1.600 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o doanh nghi\u1ec7p<\/strong> v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 820 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/strong> cho th\u1ea5y V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, theo d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi (WB)<\/strong> c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 tu\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc, kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, B\u1eafc Phi v\u00e0 Pakistan<\/strong> c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 suy gi\u1ea3m 1,3% trong n\u0103m 2026<\/strong> do xung \u0111\u1ed9t, sau khi t\u0103ng 3,3% n\u0103m 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

WB d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o khu v\u1ef1c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2027<\/strong>, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n

H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u1ea1i Saudi Arabia ho\u00e3n sang n\u0103m 2027<\/h3>\n

\u00d4ng Elhedery d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn tham d\u1ef1 m\u1ed9t h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 quan tr\u1ecdng t\u1ea1i Saudi Arabia, ban \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0o tu\u1ea7n ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n ph\u1ea3i ho\u00e3n sang n\u0103m 2027<\/strong> v\u00ec lo ng\u1ea1i an ninh, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Houthi \u1edf Yemen ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng g\u00e2y th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong t\u1ea1i Riyadh.<\/p>\n

Hai t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a<\/h2>\n

T\u1eeb nh\u1eefng th\u00f4ng tin tr\u00ean, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng theo hai h\u01b0\u1edbng: r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u00f2ng cung n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1c kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng suy lu\u1eadn t\u1eeb b\u00e0i b\u00e1o, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o gi\u00e1 do HSBC ho\u1eb7c WB c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1.<\/p>\n

1. Tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n thay th\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/h3>\n

Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o Hormuz khi\u1ebfn ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf v\u00e0 LNG ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m v\u1edbi di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn an ninh. C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n m\u1edbi c\u1ea7n th\u1eddi gian tri\u1ec3n khai n\u00ean ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf nguy c\u01a1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng v\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn logistics thay th\u1ebf \u0111i v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u00eam ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0a n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1eadp trung c\u1ee7a d\u00f2ng cung v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t tuy\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf s\u1ee9c \u00e9p l\u00ean gi\u00e1 khi x\u1ea3y ra s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 ri\u00eang t\u1ea1i Hormuz.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u ho\u1eb7c LNG s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m. T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f2n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t, ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9, lo\u1ea1i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u00e0 t\u1eebng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn cung c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

2. \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhu c\u1ea7u kim lo\u1ea1i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p<\/h3>\n

Vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng, c\u1ea3ng bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng logistics c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o th\u00eam nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u00e9p, \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh, thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb<\/strong> n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai.<\/p>\n

Quy m\u00f4 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n nhu c\u1ea7u ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. Tuy v\u1eady, 1.400 t\u1ef7 USD l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trao th\u1ea7u<\/strong>, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n; b\u00e0i b\u00e1o c\u0169ng ch\u01b0a cung c\u1ea5p kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u c\u1ea7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf suy gi\u1ea3m c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n cho ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. V\u00ec v\u1eady, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kim lo\u1ea1i c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trao, v\u1ed1n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

Ngu\u1ed3n th\u00f4ng tin:<\/strong> Vietstock \u2013 Gi\u1edbi chuy\u00ean gia: Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u201cd\u01b0 th\u1eeba\u201d trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn logistics thay th\u1ebf t\u1ea1i V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz trong 5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, theo T\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c HSBC Georges Elhedery. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y m\u1edf ra kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, d\u00f9 xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1eabn g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":52373,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52371","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tin-tuc"],"blocksy_meta":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52371","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52371"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52371\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52374,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52371\/revisions\/52374"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/52373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52371"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52371"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52371"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}