{"id":53079,"date":"2026-11-10T13:48:15","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T06:48:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/?p=53079"},"modified":"2026-11-10T13:48:15","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T06:48:15","slug":"wasde-thang-11-2026-ngo-dau-tuong-lua-my","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wasde-thang-11-2026-ngo-dau-tuong-lua-my\/","title":{"rendered":"WASDE th\u00e1ng 11\/2026: Ng\u00f4 ch\u1edd t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u, \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u201cb\u00e0i test\u201d l\u1edbn"},"content":{"rendered":"

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o WASDE th\u00e1ng 11\/2026 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u00fac 00:00 ng\u00e0y 11\/11 theo gi\u1edd Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng USDA h\u1ea1 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t ng\u00f4, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c n\u00e2ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ed3n kho l\u00faa m\u00ec M\u1ef9.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o USDA WASDE th\u00e1ng 11 c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Sau hai th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00f4ng s\u1ea3n ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ee7a USDA, WASDE th\u00e1ng 11 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u1ee7 v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 hay ch\u01b0a. V\u1edbi ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 thu ho\u1ea1ch ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n cu\u1ed1i, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u00e1ng 11 th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady cao h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 quy m\u00f4 v\u1ee5 m\u00f9a so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u1ea7u m\u00f9a.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u1ede th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m tr\u01b0\u1edbc b\u00e1o c\u00e1o, h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng ng\u00f4 th\u00e1ng 12 tr\u00ean CBOT \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda ng\u00e0y 9\/11 quanh <\/span>4,39 USD\/gi\u1ea1<\/b>, \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u00e1ng 1 quanh <\/span>11,88 USD\/gi\u1ea1<\/b> v\u00e0 l\u00faa m\u00ec th\u00e1ng 12 quanh <\/span>5,88 USD\/gi\u1ea1<\/b>. C\u1ea3 ba m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m trong phi\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc WASDE, cho th\u1ea5y t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn kh\u00e1 d\u00e8 d\u1eb7t.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trong nh\u00f3m ba m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng, <\/span>\u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 kh\u00f3 \u0111o\u00e1n nh\u1ea5t<\/b>. Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Successful Farming d\u1eabn l\u1ea1i cho th\u1ea5y b\u00e1o c\u00e1o WASDE th\u00e1ng 11 trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2000\u20132023 c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1o ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng gi\u1ea3m \u1edf \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 64%, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi m\u1ee9c bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh kho\u1ea3ng 16 cent\/gi\u1ea1 \u2014 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 l\u00faa m\u00ec. Pro Farmer c\u0169ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c hi\u1ec7n kh\u00e1 r\u1ed9ng, l\u00e0m t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng m\u1ea1nh n\u1ebfu s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u USDA l\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng chung.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ng\u00f4: USDA c\u00f3 h\u1ea1 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t sau c\u00fa s\u1ed1c th\u00e1ng 10?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Ng\u00f4 l\u00e0 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb b\u00e1o c\u00e1o th\u00e1ng 10. USDA khi \u0111\u00f3 n\u00e2ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t l\u00ean <\/span>181,2 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu Anh<\/b>, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00ean <\/span>16,034 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/b> v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2026\/27 l\u00ean <\/span>1,849 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/b>. Vi\u1ec7c ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00e3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n k\u00e9o gi\u00e1 ng\u00f4 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong nh\u1eefng tu\u1ea7n sau \u0111\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t Dow Jones \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c DTN t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng USDA <\/span>h\u1ea1 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t ng\u00f4 xu\u1ed1ng kho\u1ea3ng 180,5 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu<\/b>, qua \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0a s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec1 kho\u1ea3ng <\/span>15,944 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/b>. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trung b\u00ecnh cho t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 l\u00e0 <\/span>1,826 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/b>, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nh\u1eb9 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 1,849 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1 c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 10.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau<\/span><\/th>\nUSDA th\u00e1ng 10<\/span><\/th>\nD\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00e1ng 11<\/span><\/th>\nT\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tham kh\u1ea3o<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
N\u0103ng su\u1ea5t M\u1ef9<\/span><\/td>\n181,2 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu<\/span><\/td>\n~180,5 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu<\/span><\/td>\nH\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nh\u1eb9<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng M\u1ef9<\/span><\/td>\n16,034 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\n~15,944 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\nH\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 M\u1ef9<\/span><\/td>\n1,849 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\n~1,826 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\nH\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nh\u1eb9<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

C\u00e1c con s\u1ed1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o tr\u00ean cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o <\/span>\u00edt ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n th\u00e1ng 10<\/b>. N\u1ebfu USDA h\u1ea1 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khi t\u1ed3n kho gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi v\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng 1,8 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1, gi\u00e1 ng\u00f4 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1c mua ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t v\u1eabn quanh ho\u1eb7c tr\u00ean 181 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu, ph\u1ea7n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n n\u1eb1m \u1edf <\/span>nhu c\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u<\/b>. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 22\/10, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cam k\u1ebft xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ng\u00f4 M\u1ef9 cho ni\u00ean v\u1ee5 2026\/27 m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng 28% m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ea3 n\u0103m c\u1ee7a USDA v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 34% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc. USDA hi\u1ec7n v\u1eabn d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ng\u00f4 \u1edf m\u1ee9c kh\u00e1 cao, v\u00ec v\u1eady b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0o \u1edf ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u00f9 l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ecb c\u1eaft.<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n tham kh\u1ea3o:<\/b> s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng 15,94 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1 v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n kho gi\u1ea3m r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t d\u01b0\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 gi\u00e1; ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng duy tr\u00ec tr\u00ean 16 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1 ho\u1eb7c USDA \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi h\u1ea1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn \u00e1p l\u1ef1c cung ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c chi ph\u1ed1i th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng: N\u0103ng su\u1ea5t k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u nhu c\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u m\u1ea1nh<\/span><\/h3>\n

N\u1ebfu ng\u00f4 \u0111ang k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung, c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/span><\/p>\n

USDA th\u00e1ng 10 n\u00e2ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ef9 l\u00ean <\/span>4,562 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/b>, v\u1edbi n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t <\/span>53,1 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu Anh<\/b>. Theo kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t Dow Jones, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng 11 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng <\/span>53,6 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu<\/b>, \u0111\u01b0a s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00ean g\u1ea7n <\/span>4,601 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/b>. \u0110\u00e2y s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t r\u1ea5t cao trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau<\/span><\/th>\nUSDA th\u00e1ng 10<\/span><\/th>\nD\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00e1ng 11<\/span><\/th>\nT\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tham kh\u1ea3o<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
N\u0103ng su\u1ea5t M\u1ef9<\/span><\/td>\n53,1 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu<\/span><\/td>\n~53,6 gi\u1ea1\/m\u1eabu<\/span><\/td>\nG\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng M\u1ef9<\/span><\/td>\n4,562 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\n~4,601 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\nG\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 M\u1ef9<\/span><\/td>\n315 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\n~336 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\nG\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u0110i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 <\/span>to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 15 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c trong kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t Dow Jones \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c DTN d\u1eabn l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec1u k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng USDA n\u00e2ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c m\u1edbi<\/b>. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i r\u00f5 cho m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn. V\u00ec v\u1eady, r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c USDA c\u00f3 t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng hay kh\u00f4ng, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 <\/span>m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng c\u00f3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng hay kh\u00f4ng<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i t\u1ea1o ra c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n t\u00edch c\u1ef1c h\u01a1n. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 22\/10, cam k\u1ebft xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t kho\u1ea3ng <\/span>62% d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ea3 n\u0103m<\/b> c\u1ee7a USDA. DTN c\u0169ng ghi nh\u1eadn t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 cam k\u1ebft xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ee5 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. N\u1ebfu USDA n\u00e2ng tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, ph\u1ea7n t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ngu\u1ed3n cung b\u1ed5 sung.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u01b0ng t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 m\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7n ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t. Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t Dow Jones \u0111\u1eb7t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng trung b\u00ecnh \u1edf kho\u1ea3ng <\/span>336 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/b>, t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 315 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1 trong th\u00e1ng 10. Pro Farmer s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t Bloomberg cho con s\u1ed1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, kho\u1ea3ng <\/span>332 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/b>, cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed3n kho s\u1ebd t\u0103ng.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn v\u00e0o <\/span>ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng USDA \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh nhu c\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u<\/b>. N\u1ebfu t\u1ed3n kho v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ea1nh v\u00f9ng 330\u2013340 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nghi\u00eang r\u00f5 v\u1ec1 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu USDA n\u00e2ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u01b0ng t\u1ed3n kho v\u1eabn gi\u1eef quanh 315 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1 ho\u1eb7c th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nh\u1edd xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u m\u1ea1nh, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 coi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd t\u00edch c\u1ef1c. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 suy lu\u1eadn t\u1eeb c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00faa m\u00ec: C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n n\u1eb1m \u1edf t\u1ed3n kho v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u<\/span><\/h3>\n

Kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng, quy m\u00f4 v\u1ee5 l\u00faa m\u00ec M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c l\u1eadp, v\u00ec v\u1eady th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e1ng 11 t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o <\/span>nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n kho<\/b>. B\u00e1o c\u00e1o th\u00e1ng 10 \u0111\u01b0a t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 l\u00faa m\u00ec M\u1ef9 l\u00ean <\/span>740 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/b>, sau khi USDA \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u xu\u1ed1ng 750 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t Dow Jones tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00e1ng 11 cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed3n kho l\u00faa m\u00ec M\u1ef9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng <\/span>747 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/b>, trong khi kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t Bloomberg \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Pro Farmer t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng <\/span>744 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/b>. C\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng m\u1ed9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau<\/span><\/th>\nUSDA th\u00e1ng 10<\/span><\/th>\nD\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u00e1ng 11<\/span><\/th>\nT\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tham kh\u1ea3o<\/span><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
T\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 M\u1ef9<\/span><\/td>\n740 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\n~744\u2013747 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1<\/span><\/td>\nH\u01a1i b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
T\u1ed3n kho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi 2026\/27<\/span><\/td>\n276,0 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n<\/span><\/td>\n~277,1 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ea5n<\/span><\/td>\nH\u01a1i b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Ngo\u00e0i b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i M\u1ef9, l\u00faa m\u00ec c\u00f2n ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c Bi\u1ec3n \u0110en. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc b\u00e1o c\u00e1o, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u0169ng theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n Nga\u2013Ukraine v\u00ec b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0o v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u01b0u th\u00f4ng ng\u0169 c\u1ed1c Bi\u1ec3n \u0110en \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u1ea7n \u201cpremium \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb\u201d trong gi\u00e1 l\u00faa m\u00ec.<\/span><\/p>\n

Do v\u1eady, n\u1ebfu USDA ch\u1ec9 n\u00e2ng t\u1ed3n kho nh\u1eb9 nh\u01b0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb WASDE c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. M\u1ed9t c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1edbn h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u M\u1ef9, t\u1ed3n kho th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ho\u1eb7c m\u1ed9t thay \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u l\u1edbn.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i<\/span><\/h2>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m 00:00 ng\u00e0y 11\/11 theo gi\u1edd Vi\u1ec7t Nam, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f4 \u0111\u1ecdng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o ba m\u1ed1c ch\u00ednh: <\/span>ng\u00f4 kho\u1ea3ng 15,94\u201315,98 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng; \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng kho\u1ea3ng 4,60 t\u1ef7 gi\u1ea1 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng; l\u00faa m\u00ec kho\u1ea3ng 744\u2013747 tri\u1ec7u gi\u1ea1 t\u1ed3n kho cu\u1ed1i k\u1ef3 M\u1ef9<\/b>. C\u00e1c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t l\u1edbn kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u00f4i ch\u00fat nh\u01b0ng c\u00f9ng cho th\u1ea5y ng\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 ngu\u1ed3n cung, trong khi ngu\u1ed3n cung v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, <\/span>con s\u1ed1 tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng quan tr\u1ecdng b\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng<\/b>. M\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c t\u1ed3n kho cao v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng n\u1ebfu th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng; ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng n\u1ebfu m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn ho\u1eb7c USDA \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi h\u1ea1 nhu c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc m\u00e0 EDT \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh trong b\u00e0i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch WASDE th\u00e1ng 10.<\/span><\/p>\n

Qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m WASDE<\/span><\/h3>\n

WASDE l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n m\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng theo nhi\u1ec1u l\u1edbp th\u00f4ng tin c\u00f9ng l\u00fac. N\u0103ng su\u1ea5t, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, t\u1ed3n kho, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 trong c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m, khi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng nh\u1ecbp t\u0103ng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00e1c l\u1eadp h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. Edu Trade trong <\/span>b\u00e0i ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u00e1o c\u00e1o WASDE th\u00e1ng 10<\/span><\/a> \u0111\u00e3 khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean ch\u1ec9 nh\u00ecn m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb hay ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ngay theo ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a b\u00e1o c\u00e1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd tr\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u1edd c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 g\u1ed3m: r\u00e0 so\u00e1t l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111ang m\u1edf, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y qu\u00e1 cao v\u00e0 tr\u00e1nh m\u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf l\u1edbn ngay s\u00e1t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u00e1o c\u00e1o. Gi\u00e1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u00e1 ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u nhanh trong nh\u1eefng ph\u00fat \u0111\u1ea7u; v\u00ec v\u1eady vi\u1ec7c ch\u1edd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 th\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n v\u1edbi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb r\u1ee7i ro.<\/span><\/p>\n

X\u00e9t theo l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, th\u00e1ng 11 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i k\u1ef3 WASDE bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u00f4 v\u00e0 l\u00faa m\u00ec, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i l\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd: d\u1eef li\u1ec7u giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2000\u20132023 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Grain Market Insider t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p cho th\u1ea5y bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng trung b\u00ecnh ng\u00e0y b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n hai m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00e0ng c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 l\u00fd do \u0111\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u1ecb th\u1ebf tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o WASDE th\u00e1ng 11\/2026 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 l\u00fac 00:00 ng\u00e0y 11\/11 theo gi\u1edd Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng USDA h\u1ea1 n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t ng\u00f4, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c n\u00e2ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1eadu t\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u1ed3n kho l\u00faa m\u00ec M\u1ef9. B\u00e1o c\u00e1o USDA WASDE th\u00e1ng 11 c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd? […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":53080,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_gspb_post_css":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-53079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-phan-tich"],"blocksy_meta":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53079"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53079\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53081,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53079\/revisions\/53081"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/edutrade.vn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}